Pressure on the Federal Reserve introduces a new source of uncertainty in the outlook for international trade

Global trade depends on confidence in the stability of monetary policy.

Recent developments in the conduct of monetary policy in the United States have once again highlighted the importance of institutional stability for the proper functioning of international trade and financial markets, although market reaction has been contained for the time being.

For companies with an international presence, it is essential to operate in an environment of predictable financial costs, relatively stable currencies and consistent payment behaviours by buyers. These conditions depend to a large extent on the credibility of monetary policy frameworks, especially in the case of the United States, whose interest rate decisions have a decisive influence on capital flows and trade finance at the global level.

Current market valuations indicate that investors continue to expect U.S. monetary policy to be guided primarily by macroeconomic indicators rather than external factors. In this scenario, inflation expectations remain subdued, long-term interest rates show stability, and global growth is advancing at a subdued pace.

According to CESCE's analysis of the international macroeconomic environment, global GDP growth will be around 2.8% in 2026 and 2.9% in 2027, while the US economy will grow by approximately 2% in both years. With these forecasts, no abrupt changes in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy are anticipated, beyond possible gradual adjustments.

In this context, a greater perception of risk can make it difficult to access finance and strain supply chains, especially in sectors with high international exposure.

For now, world trade continues to develop relatively normally. Companies that incorporate active financial and credit risk management, supported by hedging and analysis tools, are in a better position to face scenarios of greater volatility and preserve the stability of their international operations.

About CESCE

CESCE is the benchmark company in Spain in the comprehensive management of commercial and political risk. Through credit insurance solutions, commercial information and risk coverage on its own account and on behalf of the State, CESCE supports companies in their national and international development, facilitating financing, protecting against non-payment and contributing to the stability of Spanish foreign trade.