Concern about trade defaults is increasing. The Atradius Payment Practices Barometer indicates that #defaults in commercial transactions increased by nine points in one year and nearly 50% of companies fear an increase in #insolvencies in the coming months.
The most monitored sectors currently are:
The Bank of Spain warns about construction and real estate, although it considers that the system's risk still remains contained.
The most worrying factors are reduced business margins, lower sales growth, and accumulated financial pressure with more difficult refinancings for highly indebted companies.
Especially sensitive:
Some legal experts warn that the drop in bankruptcies may be misleading. Many companies are delaying formal recognition of insolvency, exhausting liquidity before resorting to preventive restructurings.
This increases:
WHAT WORRIES INSURERS AND CREDIT ANALYSTS RIGHT NOW
The areas most monitored by companies such as Cesce, Coface, or Creditoycaucion are the increase in payment delays before formal #non-payment, the silent deterioration of small #SMEs, as well as geopolitical tension and lower European consumption mainly due to industrial weakness in Germany. The increase in labor and tax costs and excessive dependence on a few clients are also a concern.
EARLY WARNING SIGNS OF DEFAULT RISK
Spain is not in a generalized insolvency crisis scenario, but it is in a phase of ‘high structural delinquency’. The focus is no longer solely on visible bankruptcies, but on companies surviving with severe liquidity tensions.
The most important risk for 2026 appears to be:
And the great deciding factor will continue to be the cost of financing and the real cash generation capacity.
